Transition Matrix Models of Consumer Credit Ratings

Modelling Credit Risk in portfolios of consumer loans: Transition Matrix Model for Consumer Credit Ratings

The corporate credit risk literature has many studies modelling the change in the credit risk of corporate bonds over time. There is far less analysis of the credit risk for portfolios of consumer loans. However behavioural scores, which are commonly calculated on a monthly basis by most consumer lenders are the analogues of ratings in corporate credit risk. Motivated by studies in corporate cr...

Ratings-Based Models of Credit Risk

Structural models in consumer credit

We propose a structural credit risk model for consumer lending using option theory and the concept of the value of the consumer’s reputation. Using Brazilian empirical data and a credit bureau score as proxy for creditworthiness we compare a number of alternative models before suggesting one that leads to a simple analytical solution for the probability of default. We apply the proposed model t...

Consumer credit scoring models with limited data

In this paper we design the neural network consumer credit scoring models for financial institutions where data usually used in previous research are not available. We use extensive primarily accounting data set on transactions and account balances of clients available in each financial institution. As many of these numerous variables are correlated and have very questionable information conten...

The Credit Ratings Game

The collapse of so many AAA-rated structured ...nance products in 2007-2008 has brought renewed attention to the causes of ratings failures and the con‡icts of interest in the Credit Ratings Industry. We provide a model of competition among Credit Ratings Agencies (CRAs) in which there are three possible sources of con‡icts: 1) the CRA con‡ict of interest of understating credit risk to attract ...